Oil and Natural Gas Prices Increase
Oil prices briefly shot above $63 a barrel Thursday in a rally that brokers attributed to technical trading, coupled with buying prompted by the approach of the Northern Hemisphere winter.
Natural gas futures also climbed following the release of government data that showed a net withdrawal of natural gas from domestic underground storage facilities.
Analysts are split over whether the recent surge in energy futures represents a correction for a market that had been trending lower since late summer, or if it is the beginning of a new upswing.
Tetsu Emori, chief commodities strategist at Mitsui Bussan Futures in Tokyo, argued prices are headed higher.
“There are bullish factors in the market finally. I expect prices will rise to $64-65 in December,” Emori said.
But Mike Guido, commodities strategist for Societe General in New York, said the picture is less clear. For the time being, Guido believes the $7 jump in front-month crude-oil futures is a reflection of short-covering, in which traders who had expected an even steeper decline in prices this fall have been forced to cover their bets.
However, if prices settle above $63.50, Guido said that might signal a “breakout” to the upside.
Light sweet crude for January delivery rose 62 cents to $63.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent futures rose 42 cents to $63.49 on London’s ICE exchange.
The possibility of further production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries when it meets next month in Nigeria has also weighed on traders’ minds in recent days.
But “as long as prices sustain over $60, I think they don’t need to discuss cuts,” Emori said.
In other Nymex trading, natural gas futures rose 6 cents to $8.93 per 1,000 cubic feet. In its latest weekly report, the Energy Department said underground storage of natural gas declined by 32 billion cubic feet last week to 3.23 trillion cubic feet. That is still more than 7 percent above the five-year average for this time of year.
Heating oil futures rose by more than half a penny to $1.8010 per gallon, while unleaded gas futures were steady at $1.6706 a gallon.